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This survey of more than fifty years of national security policy juxtaposes declassified U. S. national intelligence estimates with recently released Soviet documents disclosing the views of Soviet leaders and their Communist allies on the same events. Matthias shows that U. S. intelligence estimates were usually correct but that our political and military leaders generally ignored them—with sometimes disastrous results. The book begins with a look back at the role of U. S. intelligence during World War II, from Pearl Harbor through the plot against Hitler and the D-day invasion to the "unconditional surrender" of Japan, and reveals how better use of the intelligence available could have saved many lives and shortened the war. The following chapters dealing with the Cold War disclose what information and advice U. S. intelligence analysts passed on to policy makers, and also what sometimes bitter policy debates occurred within the Communist camp, concerning Vietnam, the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban missile crisis, the turmoil in Eastern Europe, the Six-Day and Yom Kippur wars in the Middle East, and the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. In many ways, this is a story of missed opportunities the U. S. government had to conduct a more responsible foreign policy that could have avoided large losses of life and massive expenditures on arms buildups.
While not exonerating the CIA for its own mistakes, Matthias casts new light on the contributions that objective intelligence analysis did make during the Cold War and speculates on what might have happened if that analysis and advice had been heeded.
- Sales Rank: #2738249 in Books
- Color: Other
- Published on: 2001-04-12
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.00" h x .84" w x 6.00" l, 1.51 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 376 pages
Review
“A direct participant in some of the key intelligence disputes of the age, Willard Matthias provides us with both an inside account and a comparison with newly revealed Russian documents. This important work may open our eyes anew.”
—John Prados, Author of Presidents’ Secret Wars: CIA and Pentagon Covert Operations from World War II Through the Persian Gulf
“This book takes the reader into the inner councils of U.S. Cold War strategic planning and enables one to second-guess the best and the brightest from Truman to Reagan. With its wealth of heretofore top-secret National Intelligence Estimates, it is to the Cold War what the Pentagon Papers were to the war in Vietnam.”
—Charles D. Ameringer, Author of U.S. Foreign Intelligence: The Secret Side of American History
“This book, particularly when read in conjunction with the newly released CIA documents, should be very useful to serious students of the Cold War and of American national security policy.”
—R. A. Strong, CHOICE
“The descriptions of major problems or crises and the misuse of analysis are concise and well written. The accuracy of analysis is assessed against later Soviet behavior (or that of others), long-run developments, and newly available evidence from Soviet bloc files. This makes a stimulating book, good reading for specialists in intelligence, national security, or the recent history of American foreign policy.”
—Patrick M. Morgan, Perspectives on Political Science
“The book comes alive when he draws on his personal experiences to explain splits within the intelligence community, to describe the intelligence processes, and to provide telling details. Matthias is an acute observer of how intelligence was put together and sheds light on a number of key estimates, not only on the USSR but also on Vietnam and other countries.”
—Robert Jervis, Political Science Quarterly
“America's Strategic Blunders is a hard-hitting defense of CIA intelligence analysis from 1936 to 1973 and a critique of the failure of policymakers from 1973 to 1991 to maintain a system of national intelligence that provided what was needed, if not always what was welcome. The author served for many years as a senior intelligence estimator and knows what he is talking about. His thoughtful analysis provides an important complement for understanding declassified records on the role of intelligence in policy-making in the Cold War, with valuable lessons for the future as well.”
—Raymond L. Garthoff, Brookings Institution
About the Author
Willard C. Matthias began his career in intelligence during World War II deciphering "ultra" codes for the Military Intelligence Division of the War Department General Staff. He joined the CIA's Office of the National Estimates when it opened in 1950 at the start of the Korean War and rose to become a member of the Board of National Estimates in 1961. He retired in 1973 not long after Richard Helms resigned as CIA Director rather than cooperate in President Nixon's scheme to have the CIA help cover up the Watergate break-in.
Most helpful customer reviews
11 of 12 people found the following review helpful.
Solid Thinking on Disconnects Between Policy & Intelligence
By Robert David STEELE Vivas
I like and recommend this book because it is an important personal account from a very talented senior intelligence estimates professional. It documents in great detail a number of extremely serious mistakes on the part of U.S. policy makers from World War II through to Reagan years, while also recounting the history of how the Pentagon helped destroy CIA's independent assessments capability.
Time and time again throughout this book one sees references to "state of mind" and "mindset", and this is important. The author has a very fine grasp of how debilitating ingrained mindsets can be--the military mindset that focuses on buying more and more high technology even though it is demonstrably irrelevant to our most urgent strategic needs; the policy mindset that emphasizes the need for a tangible "main enemy" even as we destroy the environment and ignore catastrophic diseases and failed states; and the intelligence mindset that values secrecy and blind loyalty over public disclosure and public service.
I am especially impressed by the author's past responsibility for preparing the "Estimate of the World Situation", and how compellingly he distinguishes between the great days when such estimates were both produced and consumed, and today's state of affairs, where only "hard targets" are the object of our obsession, and "rest of the world" is poorly addressed.
The integrity of intelligence is a theme than runs throughout the book, and for that reason alone I recommend it for every policy and intelligence professionals' library. There are also compelling insights and thoughtful quotes.
The author's itemization of seven structural anomalies and states of mind that were present in World War II and can be seen today is worth abstracting here: 1. Absolute commitment to unconditional surrender eliiminated possibilities for undermining Hitler from within; 2. Allied command structure was not unified in fact; 3. There were no functioning lines of communication between tactical military and tactical (field) intelligence units; 4. Military leaders had a tactical intelligence state of mind, not a strategic intelligence state of mind, and were overly dependent on signals intelligence; 5. Military leaders were absolutely committed to established plans and unwilling to deviate or consider alternatives even in the face of compelling intelligence; 6. Moral self-righteousness and political naivete blinded Allied political and military leaders to the efforts of moderating forces in Germany ready to start an internal war; 7. Concept of war shifted away from the Clausewitzian "trinity" toward a "total war" emphasizing societal destruction and victory at any cost.
As his book goes on to document, these problems have been with us through the entire Cold War period, and have resulted in great waste of the taxpayer dollar as well as extraordinary risk of nuclear war with the Soviets during the 1980's when we played a very confrontational game with very limited policy level appreciation of just how desperate the Soviets might be.
This is not a book that offers solutions or suggestions for improving the vitality of intelligence or the attention span of policy makers, but it is an excellent contribution to what one can only hope will eventually be a truly public debate about the need for restoring America's strategic intelligence analysis capabilities, and making both intelligence producers and intelligence consumers accountable for "informed policy."
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
The Devolution of Strategic Intelligence
By Retired Reader
Strategic intelligence in essence is knowledge derived from rigorous research and analysis processes that informs high level decision making and long term planning. In the U.S. the production of strategic intelligence until recently was the province of the Directorate of Intelligence (DI) of CIA. This book is a chronicle of the accomplishments and failures of CIA's strategic intelligence programs from the end of WWII until Presidency of Ronald Reagan (1980-1988).
Shortly after the end of WWII (1946), CIA's immediate predecessor, the Central Intelligence Group was formed to include a strategic intelligence production center the Office of Research and Evaluation (ORE). With the creation of CIA in 1947, the ORE was folded into the Office of National Estimates (ONE). ONE was composed of CIA subject matter experts supplemented by academic and other outside experts. Like the ORE it was charged with producing in depth studies (estimates) that were designed to inform presidential decision making, policy formulation, and support National Security Council (NSC) deliberations. This arrangement one away with in 1973 by President Nixon who replaced ONE with a more politically pliable National Intelligence Council (NIC) and a system of National Intelligence Officers (NIO). Each NIO had specific geographic (e.g. Soviet Union) or subject matter (e.g. nuclear proliferation) responsibilities, but no permanent staff to assist them. The principal product of the NIC was and continues to be the National Intelligence Estimate. Most recently the NIC was moved from CIA to the Office of Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).
This book provides a very good history of how the U.S. went about building a strategic intelligence capability in the wake of WWII that was largely driven by what came to be known as the Cold War. Perhaps the most interesting unintended consequence of this book, is the glaring fact that even when CIA through ONE actually was producing useful strategic intelligence it was largely ignored by Presidents and their National Security advisors in favor of their personal perceptions and agendas.
The author of this book, Willard Matthias, is uniquely qualified to write this book having served as a strategic analyst from 1946 to 1973 when he and a number of other experienced analyst and intelligence officers left CIA in protest over the Nixon administrations efforts to politically influence the process of intelligence production
2 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
OUTSTANDING
By 100%
THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST BOOK ON THE WAY INTELLIGECE IS IGNORED IN MAKING KEY POLICIES. MATTHIAS WAS HIGH IN THE CIA AND PRIVY TO MUCH INFORMATION. I KNOW OF NO BETTER ACCOUNT THAN THIS, AND I HAVE READ MANY.
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